Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 130,359
2 South Dakota 125,849
3 Rhode Island 117,032
4 Utah 114,497
5 Arizona 111,269
6 Tennessee 110,235
7 Oklahoma 106,104
8 Iowa 105,571
9 Wisconsin 105,233
10 Arkansas 104,632
11 Nebraska 103,193
12 Kansas 101,215
13 Alabama 99,429
14 South Carolina 98,197
15 Indiana 97,968
16 Mississippi 97,735
17 Idaho 94,973
18 Nevada 94,544
19 Wyoming 93,130
20 Illinois 93,017
21 Montana 92,562
22 Louisiana 91,344
23 Georgia 90,626
24 Texas 89,929
25 Kentucky 89,885
26 California 89,502
27 Delaware 87,382
28 New Mexico 87,285
29 Florida 87,202
30 New Jersey 86,590
31 Minnesota 85,051
32 Missouri 83,716
33 Massachusetts 82,777
34 New York 82,155
35 Ohio 81,732
36 North Carolina 80,979
37 Alaska 78,349
38 Connecticut 77,226
39 Colorado 73,644
40 West Virginia 72,457
41 Pennsylvania 71,865
42 Virginia 66,225
43 Michigan 63,876
44 Maryland 62,383
45 District of Columbia 56,330
46 New Hampshire 54,176
47 Washington 44,427
48 Puerto Rico 41,604
49 Oregon 36,308
50 Maine 32,430
51 Vermont 23,410
52 Hawaii 19,157

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 South Carolina 495
2 New York 355
3 Delaware 311
4 New Jersey 285
5 Rhode Island 262
6 Florida 256
7 North Carolina 254
8 Massachusetts 229
9 Arizona 222
10 Texas 221
11 New Hampshire 220
12 Kentucky 217
13 Oklahoma 211
14 Connecticut 208
15 Virginia 208
16 Georgia 203
17 Vermont 190
18 Utah 188
19 Louisiana 169
20 Ohio 162
21 Pennsylvania 161
22 Tennessee 161
23 Colorado 160
24 Alabama 156
25 Indiana 154
26 New Mexico 154
27 Alaska 153
28 West Virginia 148
29 Montana 144
30 Iowa 141
31 District of Columbia 138
32 Minnesota 136
33 California 132
34 Illinois 126
35 Wyoming 124
36 Idaho 119
37 South Dakota 119
38 Arkansas 115
39 Nebraska 115
40 Kansas 114
41 Maryland 109
42 Mississippi 109
43 Wisconsin 99
44 Washington 93
45 Maine 91
46 Nevada 86
47 Michigan 85
48 Missouri 83
49 Oregon 75
50 North Dakota 69
51 Puerto Rico 66
52 Hawaii 38

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,575
2 New York 2,387
3 Rhode Island 2,327
4 Massachusetts 2,300
5 Mississippi 2,201
6 Arizona 2,129
7 Connecticut 2,121
8 South Dakota 2,105
9 Louisiana 2,038
10 Alabama 1,956
11 North Dakota 1,926
12 Pennsylvania 1,847
13 Indiana 1,842
14 Arkansas 1,777
15 Illinois 1,776
16 New Mexico 1,734
17 Iowa 1,703
18 Michigan 1,635
19 Tennessee 1,619
20 South Carolina 1,618
21 Kansas 1,593
22 Nevada 1,584
23 Georgia 1,536
24 Texas 1,465
25 Ohio 1,443
26 District of Columbia 1,409
27 Delaware 1,404
28 Florida 1,399
29 Missouri 1,330
30 Maryland 1,278
31 West Virginia 1,262
32 Montana 1,255
33 California 1,253
34 Wisconsin 1,180
35 Minnesota 1,152
36 Wyoming 1,143
37 Nebraska 1,122
38 Oklahoma 1,062
39 North Carolina 1,046
40 Colorado 1,040
41 Kentucky 1,033
42 Idaho 1,022
43 Virginia 877
44 New Hampshire 848
45 Washington 646
46 Puerto Rico 620
47 Utah 577
48 Oregon 513
49 Maine 489
50 Alaska 381
51 Vermont 317
52 Hawaii 302

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Rhode Island 28
2 Virginia 15
3 Delaware 8
4 South Carolina 7
5 California 6
6 Georgia 6
7 Massachusetts 6
8 Florida 5
9 New Mexico 5
10 New York 5
11 Ohio 5
12 Oklahoma 5
13 Texas 5
14 Indiana 4
15 Iowa 4
16 Kentucky 4
17 Nevada 4
18 Tennessee 4
19 Connecticut 3
20 Illinois 3
21 Kansas 3
22 Maryland 3
23 New Jersey 3
24 North Carolina 3
25 Pennsylvania 3
26 Puerto Rico 3
27 South Dakota 3
28 Arizona 2
29 Arkansas 2
30 Louisiana 2
31 Michigan 2
32 Mississippi 2
33 Vermont 2
34 West Virginia 2
35 Alabama 1
36 Minnesota 1
37 Missouri 1
38 North Dakota 1
39 Utah 1
40 Washington 1
41 Wisconsin 1
42 Alaska 0
43 Colorado 0
44 District of Columbia 0
45 Hawaii 0
46 Idaho 0
47 Maine 0
48 Montana 0
49 Nebraska 0
50 New Hampshire 0
51 Oregon 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 323,214 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 278,720 2 99
Bent Colorado 263,224 3 99
Lincoln Arkansas 240,326 4 99
Lake Tennessee 238,170 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 127,998 224 92
Richland South Carolina 97,422 1123 64
York South Carolina 91,416 1385 55
Orange California 81,740 1849 41
Pierce Washington 41,876 2901 7

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 8,346 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 2 99
Galax city Virginia 6,932 3 99
Foard Texas 6,926 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 6,921 5 99
Orange California 1,212 1926 38
Davidson Tennessee 1,200 1943 38
Richland South Carolina 1,174 1972 37
York South Carolina 1,125 2040 35
Pierce Washington 588 2694 14

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons